The food system is near a breaking point as a quickly growing population demands both more and higher quality nutrition while climate change, soil degradation and geo-political tensions rise – threatening production and global supply chains.
The UN projects the global population will grow by more than 2 billion people from 8.2 billion today to 10.3 billion by 2080 – a number that would strain existing production practices but could be unsustainable given the current rate of soil degradation, which scientists estimate compromises the equivalent of four football fields every second – or about 100 million hectares per year.
In a recent report, data-driven simulations weighing these and other essential factors conducted by the business standards and improvement company BSI and futurist consultancy Synthesis suggest the next decade will be critical for change if the food sector is to provide enough high quality nutrition to sustain a growing population.
In this episode of FoodNavigator-USA’s Soup-To-Nuts podcast, one of the report’s authors – BSI’s Global Managing Director for Consumer, Retail and Food Todd Redwood encourages the food industry to rethink how food is produced and consumed to balance human and planetary needs. He also shares three urgent steps that stakeholders can take today as well as three critical questions – the answers to which could change the course of the food system and address the myriad threats to our long-term nutrition security.
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The time to act is now
According to Redwood and the report’s other contributors including Futurist for Food Tony Hunter and Synthesis’ Lee Fordham and Bilge Arslan, the next decade is “critical” to “rethink, rebuild and reimagine” how food is made and consumed.
Redwood explains stakeholders must address a convergence of threats, including climate change, soil degradation due to current farming practices and food loss and waste – all of which compound each other and threaten future food supply.
“We’ve sensed that the food system, and therefore the food industry that creates the food system, needs to change dramatically to be able to prepare itself for what is coming because we know that not only do we have tough, challenging times at the moment with the climate change reality we are facing, but there is also the geopolitics, there is the increasing population,” Redwood said.
At the same time, he added, “farming practices that we have been using have led to some serious soil degradation,” which is lowering the nutritional value of the food grown in it. For example, he said, we need to eat the equivalent of one and a half oranges today to receive the same nutritional value of an orange grown 40 years ago, and by 2035 we will need to eat two oranges for the same equivalent nutrition as in 1985.
Food loss and waste is another significant challenge that costs about $1 trillion annually and which contributes to climate change with about one-third of all that is produced lost or wasted.
Could ‘dramatic diversification of food production’ buttress supply chains and sales?
Redwood argues that the extent and complexity of these challenges is so significant that incremental tweaks are not enough to meaningfully alleviate strain on the food system.
Rather, he and his co-authors advocate for the dramatic diversification of food production, which they center on three pillars – prioritizing alternative proteins, adopting regenerative agriculture practices and encouraging food sovereignty.
Of these three, Redwood and his colleagues argue scaling alternative protein production holds significant potential to reduce the environmental impact of the current food system that centers on animal protein, improves food security and could foster economic growth.
But, they also note in the report that “realizing this potential will require more than innovation,” an idea that Redwood reinforces when he describes cultivated meat as in its infancy. To grow, he says, it will need collaborative support, regulatory clarity and frameworks that inspire trust across stakeholders.
Interested in learning more about the state of cultivated meat and other alternative protein production methods?
Join industry leaders in San Francisco this March at Future Food Tech. Check out who will be there, the agenda and register: https://futurefoodtechsf.com/
Despite the challenges facing alternative proteins, Redwood stressed that change is necessary and continuing business as usual, including conventional animal protein production, will lead to more challenges in ten years. To that end, Redwood advocated for credible verification of novel food production methods, including bioreactor food safety and input traceability.
He also lifted up the potential for AI to speed advancements in cellular agriculture and precision fermentation as well as more traditional protein production through enhanced forecasting, such as long range weather and other patterns for predicting waste reduction.
Moving regenerative ag from buzzword to a business necessity
In addition to scaling production of alternative proteins, Redwood and his colleagues advocate for the adoption of regenerative agricultural practices. But again, he said, standardization and traceability are essential for buy-in and to measure impact.
“Regen farming is not a new concept, it is actually farming like it used to be done, but which we’ve moved [away from towards] very intensive farming practices using a lot of chemicals and stripping top soil away, and therefore is not conducive to sustainable farming practices,” he said
While buzz around regenerative agriculture has been building in recent years, Redwood notes it is held back by a lack of standardization – including defined measures that can be tracked and reported.
He also said regenerative agriculture has been stalled on “reporting,” but that not enough changes have been implemented and measured to support efficient replication that could move the needle notably.
While there may not be a single global definition of regenerative agriculture, there are several established and respected certifications for regen ag that have clear measurable and auditable standards. These offer brands some protection in the face of greenwashing allegations and can foster consumer trust.
But Redwood’s point about auditable standards goes beyond regenerative agriculture and can be applied to almost any sustainability goal touted by a company – including efforts to reduce scopes 1, 2 and 3 emissions. He stressed that efforts need to reduce emissions need to go beyond theoretical or simply measuring and they need to include actions to reduce emissions and track progress towards ESG goals.
Could shorter-supply chains and cultural relevance reinforce the food system?
While concrete, trackable ESG and regenerative practices can reinforce the food system, other threats to the supply chain can compromise access, which is why Redwood and his colleagues encourage food sovereignty versus simply food security as the third pillar to diversifying food production.
He explained that while food security focuses on ensuring there are enough calories to feed people, food sovereignty goes a step further to ensure “cultural appropriateness,” which in turn could boost buy-in, lower food waste and enhance local economies.
The food supply chain snarls that happened during the pandemic underscored the importance of both security and sovereignty and suggested a shift in sourcing more food locally could enhance resiliency and reliability.
Successful strategies are already in place
Beyond diversifying food production, Redwood says industry stakeholders can further reinforce the food system by making the most of what is already produced, such as through upcycling would be wasted side streams or helping consumers use more of what they buy. This is a strategy being seized by startups and large manufacturers alike and which is gaining traction with consumers, thanks to the Upcycled Foods Association’s standards and certification for the claim.
An example of how CPG players can encourage consumers to waste less is the mayonnaise brand Hellmann’s Make Taste Not Waste campaign, which parent company Unilever spearheaded to show shoppers how to use the condiment to turn leftovers into creative new meals.
These are just two examples, but CPG companies, ingredient suppliers and others in the supply chain are piloting and championing a range of solutions, which show how reinforcing the food system also reinforces businesses’ top and bottom lines.